Let’s start with the big, wet elephant in the room. Yes, it rained on the west side of the state recently. No, the drought is not over.
Deficits in soil moisture, streamflow, and precipitation could mean a continued drought next year.
It’s still warm and dry
The Water Supply Availability Committee is a group of experts from state and federal agencies who meet monthly to discuss water supply conditions in Washington.
River forecasts predict average streamflows will be below normal through September. Monthly runoff since May has been below normal and that low trend is expected to continue.
Reservoir storage in the Yakima Basin is the lowest it’s been for this time of year since 1971. Junior water right holders in that area have been restricted to 40% of their normal allotment.
The water year so far, (measured October through July) was about 1.5 degrees higher than normal averaged statewide. This water year ties 1941 and 2024 as the 11th warmest since 1895.
Precipitation was 87% of normal, making this the 33rd driest water year so far. But the calendar year so far tells a much drier story.
Drier than normal conditions have been more widespread across the state since January with statewide precipitation being only 70% of normal. Temperatures for January through July were close to normal – about .6 degrees higher than average. January through July was the seventh driest on record. For spring and summer, April through July was the third driest on record. Record keeping for these statistics began in 1895.
More rain probably won’t help
The precipitation deficit that began in 2023 continues to persist with some parts of the state falling between 21 and 25 inches short of where they should be. We ran out of snowpack months ago.
There are severe soil moisture deficits throughout the state, especially in the Yakima Basin and along the Cascade Mountains. Any rain we get will likely be soaked into the very dry soil before running off into streams or replenishing aquifers.
Is there any hope?
Predictions for the fall point to above normal precipitation, though predictions for temperature are uncertain. There is also a La Niña watch in effect, meaning there is a slight chance of a weak La Niña later in the year. La Niñas are typically associated with wetter, colder conditions. A very cold, very wet winter is what will be needed to end the drought.